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I was talking to a colleague. today who, knowing my penchant for peak ‘peak theory’, asked me if the current onslaught of S&P 500 priced in what-have-you was reaching nonsense territory.
One might be tempted to imagine this was growing bubblicious after, in the course of the day hearing how the S&P performed versus gold, the euro, swissie, rough rice, and bunds.
However after further examination it has become abundantly clear that we are simply shifting forward along the move to the most accurate portrayal of the index: S&P 3.0
Now for those unfamiliar with the paradigm v 1.0 was used in the olden days when people wanted the S&P quoted in USD. This proved completely worthless in the modern era when it was realized that, in the evolving macro climate, the index was only worth measuring against other variables. This lead to v 2.0 where any blogger decided that, for the arbitrary timeframe of his or her choosing, it would be best to measure it based on a commodity or a currency from whatever country makes it look the worst today.
At this point the failure of v 2.0 should be obvious: it only accounts for one currency or commodity. This will without question will usher in the reign of v 3.0
With the ubermacro climate of the day the only S&P charts that will matter going forward are those of the index priced in both a commodity and a currency.
Here are the most important S&P charts for the new normal. If you’re smart you will probably want to roll out ETFs on these bad boys before PMs turn over their portfolios at year end.
The Prius: S&P priced in crude priced in JPY
The Valentine’s Day: S&P priced in gold (one true currency) priced in cocoa
The Banh Mi: S&P priced in Vietnamese Dong priced in lean hogs
All the hitters have analysts working on 4.0 but that’s another post.