2011 and an arbitrary point of reflection

1 Jan

Now I know that 1) it is a fool’s errand to pontificate as to where the world will stand in a year’s time 2) you are surely sick of reading these by now, but when anal_yst asked for my outlook I decided I could explain the themes that I have currently constructed my portfolio around.  So, on these moves I have positioned myself usually (through FX trades and index options mostly) for the year ahead. As anyone looking to actually make money should, I will try to objectively reevaluate them throughout the year.

Listed in order of my personal risk concentration:

1.15 EUR
6.10 CNY
A much wider Spanish curve with 5% on the 2 and 7.5% on the 10
1060 KRW
27.8 TWD
.96 AUD
Rising yields and a flatter curve for USTs 2.9% on the 3, 3.4% on the 5 and  4.2% on the 10, 4.9% on the 30
Tighter spreads in EM high yield credit
1.60 GBP
Sub 1200 Gold
1311 on the S&P 500 (don’t actually have a any equity positions, but it’s not an outlook w/o a bullshit S&P number)

Also have recently gone long a few tobacco settlement munis for yield sake.

If I had to pick a *surprise*: I doubt the fed will use it’s entire mandate for QE2.

Goals for the year ahead:
Move, both firm and city. With the decision of former clearly deciding the latter.
Knock out the CFA again in June.
Drop ten pounds, must be done. Suits currently not looking their finest.
Try to write on this blog a bit more, I find it helps me organize my thoughts and god knows my writing could use some practice.

My most important thank you this year has to go out to my twitter followers, it’s been invaluable to have a 24 hour sounding board for any discussion I can imagine. That, and you guys make me laugh pretty damn regularly.

With less than 24 hours until New Zealand rings in the start of the 2011 trading year I am pretty excited to make run at it.

Good luck out there everyone.

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