Tag Archives: government

Treasury selling of MBS: Round 1 to the Obama Administration

21 Mar

Buy into Weakness, Sell into Strength

There is an old adage, which says “Those with the Gold Rules”. The US Gov’t has all the gold. After buying $1.5T of agency mortgage backed securities to keep mortgage rates low, the Treasury announced the orderly sales of MBS. The idea as listed in their press release is to unwind their position for a profit without upsetting the markets.  Keep in mind the independent Federal Reserve Bank isn’t selling,

What does the Treasury own:

February 2011    
       
Current Face of the Portfolio at the End of Month


 
30-Year      
Fannie Mae Freddie Mac  
4.0% 1,376,966,849 6,495,785,739  
4.5% 17,160,393,201 27,946,089,858  
5.0% 22,436,589,516 21,143,129,062  
5.5% 19,103,475,065 9,018,824,625  
6.0% 8,723,088,415 2,161,991,362  
6.5% 47,223,820 0  
 

15-Year

     
Fannie Mae Freddie Mac  
4.0% 0 318,146,273  
4.5% 60,412,369 0  
5.0% 61,850,726 65,124,834  
5.5% 49,831,614 126,373,957  
6.0% 0 0  
6.5% 0 0  
       
Numbers represent the current face of the portfolio at the end of the month

Source: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/Pages/mbs-purchase-program.aspx

The US Gov’t purchased (actually over purchased) the current coupon TBA to bring down mortgage rates in a feeble attempt to bring back the US housing market. This tactic didn’t help stop the bleeding though it did slow it down some. As they overbought production (TBA is a futures market and therefore originators can oversell causing trade fails) in the current coupon, the US Gov’t purchased premium coupons to help with the mortgage rates. Again the US Gov’t overbought real production, so then they bought some discount bonds and then stopped.

With all the unrest n the Middle East and nuclear catastrophe in Japan, Agency MBS bonds like Treasuries are rallying due to the flight to quality trade. The US Gov’t thinks they can have their cake (i.e. profits) and eat it too (i.e. political brownie points by lowering debt).  Additionally, they think they can sell $10B/week without dramatically driving up rates. Are they right? Are they crazy? Will Megan ever see her long lost brother who recently had the sex change operation in Sweden?

In the short term, MBS spreads will widen out with increased supply but not sharply.  The US Government isn’t crazy or stupid (though I do wonder about the strategy of telegraphing your moves). The MBS market is short supply partially due to the previous government overbuying and due to decreased availability of prime credit borrowers who haven’t refinanced in the last few years. The planned selling of $10B per month will be in the higher coupons. Selling in the higher coupons will produce the most profits.

The real question is will the US government sell 4.5% and 5% bonds at a loss or modest gain? The Administration will claim a political victory by 1) spending money to help the housing market when they needed it, 2) make a profit for the US taxpayer better than any private company, 3) demonstrate the need for a government presence in the mortgage market and 4) reduce US debt by $10B/month.

All of this is just the prelude to the main event: The soon to be released Dodd-Frank Act qualified residential mortgage and risk retention rules versus every political self-interest group in the mortgage business.

 

 

 

 

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GSE Reform: No proof in the pudding

13 Feb

Worse than too-quick, unsatisfying sex

Last Friday the Obama Administration and the Department of Treasury released their long awaited and overdue plan for housing reform. They delivered a whole lot of nothing: No plan, No future of mortgage secondary market, No future mortgage buyer of last resort, and No substance. The kids at the Department of Treasury must have written this paper during their senior economics policy class at their Ivy League school. (At my alma mater they would have received a mid “C” for this crap if the professor were in a generous mood.)

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A Quick Thought on the Toyota “Situation”

23 Feb

First of all, I think its pretty apparent at this point that the U.S. Government, and to a (slightly) lesser extent, Media, have taken this Recall thing way too far.   As several outlets (that I’m far too lazy at the moment to collect/summarize) have pointed-out, virtually EVERY auto manufacturer has recalls EVERY year.  While Toyota certainly could have been a little more proactive, compared to their peers’ responses to similar issues (some even worse, with less press!), I think the’ve done a pretty respectable job.

I’ve been hearing far-too-much that Americans should make a concerted effort to buy “American” cars (read: Chrysler, Ford, GM) to support their (er, our) unemployed countrymen and women.  Combined with the actions taken by Congress (DoT, etc), summoning Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda to Washington to answer for his sins, I’m afraid this silliness may actually be gaining traction, if not widespread adoption.

The fact of the matter is that granted, it could be worse (*shudder*),  lost on most observers is that Toyota makes more cars in America than Chrysler.  That’s right.  According to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, Toyota made 1,117,409 vehicles in the U.S. in 2008 to Chrysler‘s 1,106,028.  Ford (from what I can tell, including all domestic brands) makes 1,602,011 cars in the U.S., although the report suggests less than 100,000 of them are actually Ford branded.  For even more of an idea how important domestic (U.S.) manufacturing by foreign Automakers is to our Nation’s economy, check out the Cars.com American-made Index.  Half or more of their lists are dominated the likes of Toyota, Honda, etc.

The media and government need to slow their roll, because if several get their wish, and the populace truly does “buy American”  in the traditional sense, it would be a classic case of cutting off our nose to spite our face.  Sure, the Government’s investments in GM and Chrysler could benefit, however, the last thing we want is Toyota (etc) firing tons of workers when no one buys their cars anymore.

*I deserve a medal for using “The Situation” in the headline without a picture of “The Situation,” no?

ht twitter.com/akreitman for the national sales data